A secret for programmers can help writers too.
So in programming, there’s a grand tradition called “rubber duck programming.” To sum up, if you are having trouble with what you’re working on, explain your efforts to a rubber duck.
Of course rubber ducks are pretty stupid, so you have to explain things to them like they have no idea about programming.
Very, very often, in the process of doing this, the programmer will find the error/bug thanks to the rubber duck.
This is my duck. His name is Tucker.
Now we can go into a lot of talk about the sociology and psychology of all this effort, but really all this works because you (the programmer) are forced to get out of your own head for a minute and examine your effort from an outside perspective. From there, you often find a little nugget or piece which you had assumed was there, but in fact was not or you come to realize that some portion of code was not having the effect you intended.
One thing I wish I could encourage all writers to do is Rubber Duck Plotting. Once you get stuff jotted down or outlined or a draft finished, for the love of God sit down with a rubber duck and explain it. If your story is pretty simple and basic, you may not need to do this, but if it has a mystery or a character plotting/planning then 100% you need to do this.
For an example, let’s look at this comedy video about the Star Wars prequels:
(go ahead and watch it, it’s only 3 ½ minutes)
That is partially why I ding the prequels to be as bad as they are, because when you try to explain Palpatine’s plan from his perspective, it makes no sense. No rubber duck would ever understand how any of that is supposed to work.
Does this mean your stories need a James Bond moment where a character explains a plan to another? By no means, but it should be possible for your audience to figure out what the plot was once the story is finished.
Now good writers can often make it clear that maybe the villain had a plan but the heroes foiled it so now the villain is adapting.
With these I insist the story give some clue as to “what would happen if…” Like in the above video, what would happen if Darth Maul had caught Padme on Tatooine? What if Padme had signed “the treaty” right away? What if the Senate had believed the testimony of the Jedi (why didn’t they?) on the invasion and voted to do something about the Trade Federation right away? Without consulting external material, I hope you can see how there’s no clear answer as to how any of that helps Palpatine’s plan or goal. We can’t even make a general, vague guess. (What if Maul had killed both Jedi then the Queen of Naboo?)
This is one reason I really enjoy The Dark Knight as with only one or two exceptions, you can work out that the Joker would often still get things he wants had some plans gone differently in the movie or how they “worked” require easy assumptions or simple odds playing. (i.e. How did Joker know Harvey would kidnap a henchmen with the “Dawes” nametag? He had ALL of his henchmen wear a “Dawes” nametag.)
Of course that’s just an example of two big blockbusters. A lot of cheesy b-movies are infamous for these kind of “story bugs” where the plotting or assumptions by the villains or heroes makes no sense save that they have word from the author.
And here’s the thing: very often when you do this kind of Rubber Duck Plotting, you’ll find ideas that improve your story.
For example, let’s assume that your villain needs to send troops to try and stop the heroes. However this villain needs the troops to fail because the villain don’t want to stop the heroes yet. No the villain needs to keep up the deception and also encourage the heroes to keep going. So why not write in some way for the villain to sabotage his own troops and efforts? Maybe he issues them a bunch of guns that badly made and almost always miss? Maybe he puts on a disguise and sends a warning to the heroes? Maybe he gives the troops some ridiculous orders that all but ensure they fail? (Note that you don’t have to put all this in right away, you can have revelations about this later on in the story.)
Hopefully you can see how almost any one of these possibilities open up more avenues that not only will thicken the plot, but better the story by adding new layers of character and worldbuilding you can explore.
So go out there, find a rubber duck, and let him be your best writing partner ever. Let them encourage you to keep storytelling, and give you some honest feedback about that plot that might not make a lot of sense. Don’t hate the duck, they just want you to be better.
Now if you’ll excuse me, Tucker is asking me what the bandits are going to do now that they have kidnapped the Witch Princess…
Hunting Muses 
Actually, you can explain it to the duck as if it were a programmer. The problem is generally not that deep.
BTW, if you are listening to a programmer, or a writer, describe a problem, stop in the middle, and say, Nevermind, you were the rubber duck. Just say you were glad to be of assistance.
Criminal enterprises don’t tend to be based around some master plan by an evil genius. Frequently somebody does something small, either by accident or as a move of desperation, and gets away with it.
Then they try something else and get away with that, and get into the criminal conspiracy business by slow stages, almost without meaning to.
I have known people who would be described as “reputed crime figures” in the papers and almost without exception they thought of themselves as legitimate business owners who just broke a few minor and unimportant rules–even when the rule breaking part of the business provided more income than the legitimate business part.
So I find most Bad Guy Schemes in fiction unrealistic. People just aren’t that premeditated. They blunder into situations where the stakes are suddenly very high and then they panic when they see going to prison as a real possibility.
People–even very bad people who will hurt others without hesitation–generally take the easiest path to their goals, and the easiest path is usually the most straightforward. Convoluted deceptions and doublecrosses and all the last chapter of the mystery novel style revelations are way more trouble than they are worth and not necessary. There is almost always a easier way to get what they want.